Recently, stainless steel spot market transactions warming, raw material prices stabilized and picked up, the market is still looking forward to the traditional peak season demand recovery. Boosted by this, stainless steel futures warehouse up.
Continuous return of nickel-iron from Indonesia
The U.S. August non-farm data slightly beat expectations, but the unemployment rate rose more than expected, the market fears of the Federal Reserve's aggressive rate hike eased, macro sentiment turned warm in the short term. However, Fed officials have been making hawkish comments recently, and the market may be trading rate hike expectations back and forth before the September meeting. European inflation data continued to climb, Nord Stream 1 was closed indefinitely, and Europe's energy crisis and the risk of recession remained a concern. On the domestic front, the regular session of the United States to deploy the stability of the economic package of policy measures, the national stability of growth policy or continue to force.
Domestic nickel iron production down. With the rainy season in the Philippines, the mines have a strong willingness to support the price, so that the profit space is limited. Under the cost pressure, the domestic RKEF nickel-iron plant continues to lose money. It is understood that the resumption of production of some iron plants in East and South China has been delayed, and domestic nickel-iron production may maintain a downward trend. Nickel iron prices recently stabilized and recovered. In September, the production schedule of 300 series in stainless steel factory resumed, corresponding to the rising demand for nickel-iron, and the iron factory has been shipping recently. Under the cost pressure, the iron factory has a strong willingness to support the price, but the domestic steel production still continues to lose money, the raw material end of the price mentality does not change.
With the recent rebound in the price of stainless steel, ferrochrome factory offer have risen, the increase is more than 200 yuan /50 base tons. However, steel mills for price acceptance is limited, their own inventory is relatively sufficient, steel mills to the high price purchase enthusiasm is weak.
Overall, in the recent cost pressure, iron plant price willingness is strong, stainless steel plant stocking demand recovery, market turnover turned good, nickel iron, ferrochrome prices overall stabilized. In Indonesia, although the recent increase in nickel-iron production is limited, the return of low-cost Indonesian nickel-iron is still the trend, the pattern of excess nickel-iron supply is hard to change, and the subsequent attention will be paid to the change of Indonesian nickel-iron export policy.
Seize the right opportunity
The market for "gold nine silver ten" traditional peak season demand recovery still have certain expectations, the terminal began a small amount of replenishing. According to Mysteel statistics, on September 1, 2022, the total amount of stainless steel social inventory in the mainstream market was 818,600 tons, which decreased 6.69% week on week and increased 14.22% year on year. Among them, cold rolled stainless steel inventory total 372,900 tons, week on week down 4.45%, 11.10% year-on-year decline.
Stainless steel terminal demand is not significantly warmer, real estate is still expected to be poor. Since this year, the real estate sector is facing greater downward pressure, as the real estate after the cycle of home appliances, catering appliances and building decoration and other stainless steel application fields, demand or difficult to have a bright spot. With the introduction of the national policy to stabilize growth, real estate investment is expected to bottom out and improve, but the actual stimulus effect of the support policy on housing completion may be limited, and the expectation is still weak.
To sum up, on the macro side, the overall US employment data missed expectations, the market cooled the expectation of aggressive interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the short term, and the Fed officials made hawkish remarks frequently, and the market may repeatedly trade interest rate hike expectations in the near future. European inflation continues to surge, the energy crisis still worries the market, macro risk aversion repeated. In addition, the Indonesian government adjusted the royalties of nickel ore and nickel products. The Indonesian president said that he planned to impose export duties on nickel products within this year, and he will watch the progress of relevant policies. In terms of fundamentals, the price of stainless steel raw materials has been stabilized, and the increase of downstream replenishment drives the spot transaction to turn positive. Recently, the inventory of Foshan and Wuxi has been reduced, and the market still has expectations for the demand of "gold, nine silver and ten", but the terminal demand has not recovered significantly, so we will pay attention to the national policy strength and the recovery of demand in peak season. Looking forward to the afternoon, stainless steel warehouse continued to decline, expected to turn better, stainless steel futures warehousing upward, but the subsequent upward space is still limited to demand recovery. In operation, it is recommended to wait and see, short-term interval operation, vigilant demand less than expected fall risk, can pay attention to the stainless steel contract is set of opportunities.
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